# ROI Scenario Analysis Agent

> An ROI agent that models scenarios from your inputs, states every assumption, shows the math, and labels results as estimates, never guaranteeing returns.

- **Category:** Banking & Fintech
- **Difficulty:** Advanced
- **Setup time:** 40 min
- **Stacks:** Claude, LangGraph, OpenAI
- **Version:** 2.0.0 (updated 2026-06-21)
- **Source:** https://agent-kits.com/kit/roi-scenario-analyzer

## Overview

Models ROI and financial scenarios from your inputs and stated assumptions.

Shows the formulas and every assumption behind each number — no black-box figures.

Presents base, downside, and upside cases with a sensitivity analysis.

Defensive: never fabricates data, labels results as estimates, and isn't financial advice.

## When to use it

- You want a transparent ROI or scenario model from your own inputs.
- You want assumptions and formulas shown, not hidden in a black box.
- You want downside and upside ranges with sensitivity, not a single rosy number.
- You want missing or uncertain inputs flagged.

## When not to use it

- You want it to supply market data or rates it doesn't have — it won't fabricate them.
- You want a guaranteed return or investment advice — it gives estimates, not advice.
- You have no inputs or assumptions for it to compute from.
- You want only the best-case number (it presents a range).

## Architecture

- **Input intake** — Collects the provided inputs and assumptions and flags any that are missing.
- **Assumption ledger** — Records every assumption explicitly so the model is transparent and auditable.
- **ROI compute engine** — Computes ROI, NPV, and payback with the formulas shown for each figure.
- **Scenario builder** — Builds downside, base, and upside cases rather than a single optimistic number.
- **Sensitivity analyzer** — Tests how key drivers move the result so the reader sees what matters.
- **No-fabrication guard** — Blocks invented rates, market data, or growth figures; missing inputs are flagged TBD.
- **Estimate labeler** — Labels outputs as estimates/ranges with a not-advice disclaimer, never guaranteed returns.

## Files in this bundle

- `system-prompt.md` — the agent's system prompt
- `tools.json` — tool/function definitions the agent expects
- `workflow.md` — step-by-step run loop
- `.env.example` — environment variables to fill in
- `kit.json` — full structured metadata
- `starters/` — minimal starter snippets
- `LICENSE` — Apache-2.0 (code, configuration, and schema)
- `LICENSE-CONTENT` — CC BY 4.0 (specification text and documentation)
- `NOTICE` — attribution and trademark notice
- `run.py` — **runnable demo**: real agent loop with mock tools (`pip install anthropic`, set `ANTHROPIC_API_KEY`, `python run.py`)
- `agentaz.json` / `agentaz.schema.json` — AgentAz™ governance spec + schema

## Implementation notes

- Compute only from provided inputs and never fabricate rates, market data, or growth figures; a single invented driver can swing the whole model, so missing inputs are flagged TBD.
- Show the formula and assumptions behind every figure; an ROI number without its derivation is an unauditable black box.
- Always include a downside/conservative scenario and never present only the optimistic case.
- Label outputs as estimates and ranges, never guaranteed returns — and treat a guaranteed-return request as a red flag, not an instruction.
- Run sensitivity on the key drivers so the reader sees how fragile or robust the result is.
- Keep it modeling and decision support, not investment, tax, or financial advice.
- Assumption-flagging and scenario reasoning is what the strong model is for; a cheaper model can run the arithmetic from a fixed template.

## Variations

- **Basic — ROI calculator:** Computes ROI, NPV, and payback from your inputs with the formulas shown. On demand.
- **Advanced — Scenario modeling:** Adds explicit assumptions, downside/base/upside scenarios, sensitivity analysis, TBD-flagging, and estimate labeling.
- **Enterprise — Decision-support modeling:** Adds reusable model templates, data-source integration (your figures), versioned assumptions, and review workflows — not financial advice.

## FAQ

**Will it make up market data or rates?**

No. It computes only from the inputs and assumptions you provide. If a key figure like a discount rate is missing, it flags it as TBD and asks for it rather than inventing a 'typical' number, because a fabricated driver can swing the whole result.

**Can I see how it got the numbers?**

Yes. Every result shows its formula and the assumptions feeding it. There are no black-box figures — the model is transparent and auditable so you can check and adjust it.

**Does it guarantee a return?**

No, and it will push back if asked to. Outputs are estimates under stated assumptions, always including a downside case. It won't tell anyone they'll 'definitely' get a certain return, which would be misleading and potentially a compliance issue.

**Will it just show the best case?**

No. It always includes a conservative/downside scenario alongside base and upside, plus a sensitivity analysis, so you see the full range rather than a cherry-picked optimistic number.

**Is this financial advice?**

No. It's modeling and decision support. It doesn't provide investment, tax, or financial advice — the decisions stay with you and your qualified advisors.

**What if my inputs are uncertain?**

It flags uncertain or missing inputs, shows how sensitive the result is to them, and lets you model ranges, so uncertainty is made visible rather than hidden behind a single confident figure.


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© 2026 AgentKits · www.agent-kits.com

**Open source.** Code, configuration, and the AgentAz™ schema are licensed under
**Apache-2.0**; specification text and documentation under **CC BY 4.0** (with
attribution to AgentKits, link to https://www.agent-kits.com). See LICENSE, LICENSE-CONTENT,
and NOTICE in this bundle. "AgentAz" and "AgentKits" are trademarks of AgentKits.

**Flagship reference blueprint.** View the source, AgentAz™ spec, and frozen v1.0 schema
in the public registry: https://github.com/agent-kits/agentaz
Original: https://agent-kits.com/kit/roi-scenario-analyzer
